The world economic news is marked by the public debt crisis that is shaking the countries of Europe in various ways. For Spain and Italy, the situation is promising. Indeed, the first short- and medium-term debt issues of Madrid and Rome have been a great success. Similarly the German economy continues to play the locomotive of the euro zone with an estimated growth of 3% in 2011 and a decline in the State deficit. On the other hand, the situation in Greece remains worrying because without aid it will default on its payments in March. Similarly, France, which is the second largest economy in the euro zone, has been downgraded by the rating agency Standard & Poor’s and this ranking has been confirmed by the Moody’s agency. In the end, the prospects of slowing global growth are becoming a reality.
The sovereign debt crisis and the difficulties in the euro zone are disrupting the various commodity markets. In the second half of 2011, cocoa prices began to decline as a result of the end of the crisis in Côte d’Ivoire. Robusta coffee, which is mainly exported by Cameroon, is doing just as badly. Cotton, for its part, started the year well, but unfortunately this situation did not last. Oil, despite a slight decline at the end of the year, remained around $110 per barrel in 2011. Finally, with regard to aluminium, after the increase recorded in the first quarter of 2011, there was a continuous decline in prices over the other three quarters of the year.
Regarding the Cameroonian economy, Cameroon’s trade balance still shows a deficit during the first half of 2011. This deficit amounts to 596.1 billion CFA francs. The trade balance in the first six months of the year suffered more from a strong increase in imports (26.6%), despite the slower recovery in exports of 20.4%. In addition, the crude oil trade balance, which has always been in surplus, posted a deficit of $65.6 billion for the second quarter of 2011.
Industrial activity stagnated (-0.1%) in the 3rd quarter of 2011. However, this overall situation masks severe disparities between the branches of activity. In addition to the wood, paper and printing industries (+16.3%), the production and distribution of electricity and water (+3.2%) and the production of intermediate goods and construction (2.8%), which experienced a favourable economic situation, activity was down in the other sectors of activity. This underperformance affects the textile and leather sector (-6.8%), the chemical and oil industries (-4.5%) and the agri-food industry (-2.3%).
The tertiary sector was marked in the 3rd quarter of 2011 by:
- The decrease in local consumption of liquid petroleum products (4.4%);
- The increase in the consumption of Butane Gas;
- The rise in maritime transport indicators;
- The decline in rail transport indicators;
- The decrease in road traffic accidents;
- The increase in the total sale of new vehicles level of services.
Regarding prices in the markets, the first nine months of 2011 were marked by an increase in the consumer price index of 3.0% compared to the same period of the previous year, after an increase of 0.8% in 2010. Thus, the prices of household final consumption products continue their accelerated increase that began in the 4th quarter of 2010. Inflation would therefore be outside the convergence corridor recommended by the CEMAC at the end of the year if the current rate of price changes is confirmed in the 4th quarter of 2011. The increase in prices during the first 9 months of 2011 is mainly attributable to food products, which recorded an increase of 5.1% compared to the same period of the previous year.