Inflation trends in the first nine months and outlook for 2024

During the first nine months of 2024, inflation continued its downward trend, reaching a rate of 4.9%, i.e. a
decrease of 2.9 points compared to the same period in 2023.
Inflation stood at an annual average of 4.9% at the end of September 2024. This increase is mainly due to a 6.2% increase in food prices and a 13.4% increase in transport costs, which continued to play a decisive role in inflationary pressure. The increase in food prices is largely accounted by the increase in the prices of vegetables, breads and cereals, fishes and seafood, meats as well as “milk, cheese and eggs”. In contrast, oils and fats prices have decreased. On the transport side, the price increase was mainly attributed to the increase in the costs of passenger road transport, particularly due to the adjustment of fuel prices at the pump. Inflation is much more domestic and driven by local goods and service prices. Domestic and international factors have combined to fuel the inflationary dynamics. Thus: At the national level, reduction of subsidies on hydrocarbon prices, security constraints in the North-West, South-West and some localities in the Far-North have disrupted production and distribution chains, increasing transaction costs. In addition, floods and adverse climatic shocks, characterized in some cases by longer than usual dry seasons, as well as underperforming agricultural practices, have likely reduced the supply of food products, contributing to the increase in food prices. At the international level, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Europe, particularly due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as fluctuations in the exchange rate between the CFA franc and the US dollar (via the euro), have increased inflationary pressures. Volatility in commodity prices, such as oil and agricultural products, has made imports more expensive, resulting in higher prices for imported goods. However, efforts have been made globally to mitigate inflation. These efforts include reducing disruptions in supply chains, lower global commodity prices and transportation costs, and the implementation of tight monetary policies by many central banks. However, several countries are beginning to observe a gradual easing of these monetary policies.

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